U.S.-China chip warfare might harm South Korea’s tech giants — however not for lengthy, Fitch says

The U.S.-China chip warfare might impression South Korea’s chip giants as China accounts for a big chunk of their manufacturing capability — however there should not be long-term disruptions, based on Fitch Scores.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix face dangers because the U.S. seeks to dam China’s entry to superior semiconductor chip tools, based on the June 7 report.

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China accounts for 40% of Samsung’s complete flash reminiscence chips (NAND) manufacturing functionality, mentioned the analysts led by Matt Jamieson. It additionally accounts for 40%-50% of SK Hynix’s dynamic random entry reminiscence (DRAM) chips and 20% of its NAND capability.

“We don’t assume there can be a significant long-term provide disruption, as it’s probably that Korea will grow to be the primary location for the 2 firms’ expansionary funding and know-how upgrades,” the credit score scores company mentioned within the June 7 report.

The U.S. in October launched sweeping guidelines to chop off China’s entry to acquire or manufacture high-tech semiconductor chips. They got here as issues grew over China’s capability to make use of such high-tech chips to advance its army capabilities. The Netherlands and Japan are reportedly poised to observe go well with.

Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the 2 largest producers of reminiscence chips globally, adopted by U.S.-based Micron in third place. Reminiscence chips are storage gadgets used in computer systems, smartphones and tablets.

The businesses’ fabrication vegetation in China make superior chips in addition to older chips, that are exempted from the U.S. restrictions. The reminiscence chips are produced for Chinese language consumption in addition to exports.

Nevertheless, the 2 chip giants obtained one-year waivers from the U.S. to proceed importing superior instruments for his or her China vegetation till October, based on the Korea Instances.

“Ought to the U.S. not lengthen the waiver, we count on the businesses to proceed producing reminiscence chips at their Chinese language vegetation utilizing already put in know-how,” mentioned Fitch Scores.

In what’s seen as a retaliatory transfer, China banned the sale of merchandise from Micron to be used in vital data infrastructure in Could.

Fitch Scores mentioned Samsung and SK Hynix “could profit from greater chip costs inside China in consequence. Nevertheless, the impression is more likely to be small and could possibly be offset if Micron redirects the sale of its reminiscence chips outdoors of China, as this might in all probability decrease world chip costs.”

The White Home reportedly urged South Korea to not let its chipmakers fill Micron’s void in China. Round 10% of Micron’s income come from China, based on Micron’s fiscal 2022 report.

The Fitch report mentioned the 2 South Korean chipmakers will a minimum of partially fill Micron’s hole. “It will likely be troublesome to observe what capability misplaced by Micron is definitely stuffed by the Korean firms, given the commodity-like nature of reminiscence chips.”

“The logistics of this technique might take time, however might offset any optimistic impression Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix could get hold of from the ban on Micron inside China in gentle of the world’s reminiscence chip oversupply,” the analysts mentioned.

Nevertheless, dangers might additional improve if the U.S. or China implement extra excessive rulings and bans, as it would have an effect on the price and availability of semiconductor supply-chain parts, they added.