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Reporter’s Pocket book: The Ayatollah’s Off-Ramp?

Nuclear negotiations had been stalled to start with, however the protests which have been occurring in waves throughout Iran since September and the brutal crackdown that has ensued have made doing enterprise with the Islamic Republic that rather more sophisticated.

Greater than 500 folks have been killed, 19,000 arrested and not less than 4 have been executed in reference to the demonstrations. The spark that ignited what has change into maybe the most important problem to the regime since Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 revolution, was the demise of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini whereas in police custody after having been picked up for “dangerous hijab.” 

The battle cry of those protests quick turned, “Ladies. Life. Freedom.” Nevertheless, it has change into far more. All kinds of grievances have come to the fore in protests which have change into, largely, a name for finish to the brutal Tehran regime.


Former Iranian diplomat Mehrdad Khonsari advised Fox Information that dictators by no means make concessions till they should, however he believes the time has come for Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He has written an open letter to the 83-year-old Khamenei, interesting to him in “the twilight of his life” to do the correct factor.

“My suggestion,” Khonsari wrote to the chief “is that in these essential and fateful days, it’s best to take the lead with a practical and brave understanding of the plain and simple realities that exist by striving to duplicate the mannequin utilized in South Africa…the adoption of such an method would, actually, reveal a real understanding of latest historical past permitting you to distinguish between the type of destiny that in the end awaited somebody like (F.W.) de Klerk in South Africa or (Muammar) Gaddafi in Libya.”

Khonsari mentioned he isn’t interesting to conscience a lot as rationality in Iran’s chief. He claimed, if nothing else, Khamenei is a wily man who is much from dumb. Khamenei himself should know that his assist base has eroded over time. “There may be a substantial amount of proof for that,” Khonsari says. 

“Take a look at the individuals who had been key gamers at completely different levels. For instance, one of the crucial outstanding households of the Islamic Revolution, the Rafsanjani household. The place are they? The daughter is in jail. The daddy, the household believes, was killed. One of many sons who was in jail was simply launched after doing his time.” Former Prime Minister Mir Hossein Mousavi remains to be underneath home arrest. Former President Mohammad Khatami, Khonsari mentioned, “has simply managed to maintain his head above water by not being provocative, however actually he isn’t in any means supportive of the type of views and insurance policies” Khamenei espouses.


What many consider was just about a sealed deal, for Khamenei’s son to succeed him when he ultimately passes away, would underneath present circumstances, Khonsari believes, be an excessive amount of for even residents of a police state to swallow. Khonsari mentioned the truth that Iranians have uttered the phrases “Demise to the Dictator” within the latest protests exhibits a brand new stage of discontent and that Khamenei and the system have misplaced all legitimacy. That there is no such thing as a means again.

Nevertheless, Iranians did chant such slogans in 2009 after disputed presidential elections.

“Nicely, the truth that 12 years have passed by and any hope that issues would possibly enhance for the Iranian folks have gone,” Khonsari mentioned. “And you’ve got to remember that these protests are occurring at a time when Iran is dealing with 4 main crises. You have got an financial disaster the federal government has no thought the way to repair…They’re dealing with a social disaster due to points that should do with freedom and youth. You have got a political disaster surrounding succession and you’ve got the nuclear disaster which has not led to any type of decision.”

So far as Khonsari is anxious, Iran is, actually, in a state of revolution already. 

“In the middle of the previous 4 months, the folks with empty arms have resisted the federal government regardless of how a lot drive has been used in opposition to them. They’ve refused to budge or again down on the calls for they’ve. And the federal government refuses to budge. That could be a revolutionary state of affairs.” Khonsari concludes his enchantment to Ayatollah Khamenei in the end is to acknowledge that and to pave the way in which for an eventual transition, making that path as painless and cold as doable. 

This text was initially revealed by Learn the original article here.

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