Putin congratulates ‘expensive good friend’ Erdogan as NATO’s Turkey problem seems set to remain

Turkey on Sunday voted for an additional 5 years of the management of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the highly effective, nationalist president who now enters his third decade in energy.

Russian President Vladimir Putin was among the many leaders that congratulated Erdogan on his win on Monday, calling him a “expensive good friend,” in keeping with the Kremlin.

Turkey’s historic election is very consequential for its inhabitants of 85 million, when it comes to the way forward for the nation’s democracy, economic system and overseas relations. However it’s additionally deeply important for a lot of elements of the world past Turkey’s borders.

“Turkey is an important, important NATO ally for the US and for the opposite NATO companions,” David Satterfield, former U.S. ambassador to Turkey, informed CNBC simply earlier than the ultimate presidential vote. Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, boasts the alliance’s second-largest army after the U.S. and homes 50 American nuclear warheads and a significant air base utilized by NATO forces.

It is a manufacturing powerhouse on the crossroads of Asia and Europe, in addition to an essential agricultural exporter for a lot of nations world wide. Turkey additionally hosts greater than four million refugees.

Extra not too long ago, Erdogan’s authorities is taking part in a number one diplomatic position between Russia and Ukraine and mediating the essential Black Sea grain deal, which unlocks important Ukrainian produce exports blocked by Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Erdogan has additionally stood in the way in which of among the main objectives of Turkey’s Western allies, comparable to aggressively pushing again on Russia for its warfare in Ukraine, and permitting Sweden into the NATO alliance. Erdogan’s pleasant relationship with Putin and refusal to impose sanctions on Russia, in addition to his authorities’s buy of Russian weapons programs, makes many Western officers uneasy.

Putin, in his congratulatory message Monday, praised Erdogan’s efforts to “conduct an impartial overseas coverage,” in keeping with his spokespeople. “We extremely recognize your private contribution to the strengthening of pleasant Russian-Turkish relations and mutually useful cooperation in varied areas,” he mentioned.

With Erdogan on the helm of such a strategically important nation for a contemporary new presidential time period, many are asking: what does this imply for NATO and Western geopolitical objectives?

The outlook is combined amongst political and financial analysts inside and out of doors of Turkey whether or not Erdogan is dangerous information for the way forward for NATO.

Mike Harris, founding father of advisory agency Cribstone Strategic Macro, believes the Turkish strongman’s prolonged rule is decidedly unfavorable for the 74-year-old alliance.

“Putin clearly needs NATO to fragment, and Erdogan in cost will increase the probability of NATO fragmenting,” Harris mentioned after the election’s first spherical in mid-Could. He pointed to Erdogan’s staunch refusal to chop ties with Putin and to his frequent criticism of Western governments.

However Turkey has to date benefitted considerably from its dedication to an impartial overseas coverage, with regards to Russia.

Turkey’s commerce with Russia doubled to $68.19 billion in 2022 from $34.73 billion in 2021, in keeping with the Turkish Statistical Institute. Turkey now receives 7% of Russian exports, up from 2% in 2021. Russian vacationers and expatriates, together with billionaire oligarchs escaping sanctions, have poured into the nation as their choices for journey grew to become severely restricted. Earlier in 2023, Putin waived the price of Russian fuel exports to Turkey, a transfer broadly seen as an effort to assist Erdogan’s election probabilities.

This begs the query of what leverage NATO allies would possibly attempt to use to vary that, if any.

Whereas sustaining good relations with Russia, Turkey has concurrently supported Ukraine with weapons and help — together with the highly effective and lethal Turkish-made Bayraktar drones — and facilitated prisoner swaps between the warring nations, which Western officers have praised.

Many analysts count on that Erdogan’s opposition to Sweden becoming a member of the alliance was largely a method to realize pre-election clout and that his stance will change following his victory. Turkey takes challenge with Sweden over what it says is the nation’s assist of Kurdish teams that Ankara considers to be terrorists.

For Timothy Ash, an rising markets strategist and Turkey professional at BlueBay Asset Administration, a continued pushback towards NATO goes towards Turkey’s greatest pursuits.

“If Erdogan continues to stall log out (on Swedish NATO membership), I count on a significant disaster in relations with the West,” he mentioned Monday.

“Due to stress on the lira I count on Erdogan to compromise on Sweden’s NATO bid,” Ash mentioned, referring to the Turkish foreign money that is misplaced some 80% of its worth towards the greenback within the final 5 years, largely attributable to unorthodox financial insurance policies directed by Erdogan.

“He extracted no matter political capital he may from this (Sweden pushback) pre-election, now he has received there may be solely draw back by delaying the inevitable,” he added. “So I count on Sweden to get NATO membership on the NATO summit subsequent month.”

Harris agrees. “He is already achieved his goal,” he mentioned of Erdogan. “So is Sweden going to get into NATO? I’d put cash on that, assured. Why would he struggle that battle anymore? That was an election challenge.”

Already, Sweden’s overseas ministry on Monday mentioned the Swedish and Turkish overseas ministers will meet “quickly” to debate Stockholm’s potential accession to NATO, in keeping with Reuters.

CNBC has contacted the Turkish presidency’s workplace for remark.

In the end, Erdogan’s overseas coverage choices will likely be made with the intent to primarily profit Turkey, not its Western allies. Within the phrases of former U.S. ambassador to Turkey David Satterfield, Ankara’s relationship with Russia is “important” — whether or not constructive for NATO or not.

“Turkey has been a crucial accomplice for the NATO alliance and for the broader worldwide coalition opposing Putin’s warfare in Ukraine … I feel ‘supporting Russia’ isn’t the time period I’d use,” Satterfield informed CNBC’s Dan Murphy on Friday. “Turkey has an important relationship with Russia, its relationship that has generated each good and dangerous for Turkey up to now,” he mentioned.

“We welcome, welcome the dialogue that President Erdogan has with President Putin, when the topic is stabilization, when the topic is the power to entry grain and different merchandise via the Black Sea from Ukraine, that has been extraordinarily helpful and intensely essential,” the ambassador mentioned.

“And we don’t see this as a pivot or an alignment of some sort with Russia. We see it because the conduct of obligatory relations with an important, for good or sick, neighbor of Turkey.”