Prime Intelligence officers say Al Qaeda may rebuild in Afghanistan in a single to 2 years
“The present evaluation in all probability conservatively is one to 2 years for al Qaeda to construct some functionality to not less than threaten the homeland,” said Director of the Defense Intelligence Agency Lt. Gen. Scott D. Berrier throughout Tuesday’s Nationwide Safety Summit.
Officers say that members of the terrorist group have already began to return to the nation amid the Taliban takeover, rushing the timeline for which the group may start to pose a renewed menace.
Whereas each al Qaeda and ISIS-Okay have a presence in Afghanistan, solely al Qaeda has a longtime alliance with the Taliban. It’s nonetheless unclear how a lot effort the Taliban will put into protecting the terrorist group in test, although they pledged in the course of the peace settlement with the U.S. to not permit the nation to turn out to be a haven for terrorist teams, a pledge some officers don’t belief the Taliban to maintain now that U.S. forces have departed Afghanistan.
Deputy director of the C.I.A. David S. Cohen stated that the company is watching “some potential motion of al Qaeda to Afghanistan” however famous it’s onerous for the C.I.A. to evaluate a timeline for once they or ISIS-Okay would “have the aptitude to go to strike the homeland” earlier than the company may detect the menace.
With out a floor presence within the nation, the officers will probably be seeking to develop “over the horizon” strategies of gathering intelligence.
“We can even search for methods to work from inside the horizon, to the extent that’s attainable,” Cohen stated.
Berrier harassed that any over-the-horizon intelligence capacity in Afghanistan must be developed alongside a brand new push to observe rivals equivalent to Russia and China.
“We’re desirous about methods to realize entry again into Afghanistan with every kind of sources,” Berrier stated. “Now we have to watch out to steadiness these very scarce sources with this pivot to China, and to Russia.”