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Taiwan revises down 2022 GDP progress forecast on inflation woes

Gross home product (GDP) for 2022 is now anticipated to be 3.76 per cent increased than final 12 months, the Directorate Normal of Price range, Accounting and Statistics mentioned, revising down the three.91 per cent forecast it issued in Could.

The outlook is much slower than the 6.45 per cent logged for 2021, which was the quickest price because the economic system expanded 10.25 per cent in 2010.

The total-year GDP outlook may see additional downward revisions, mentioned Woods Chen, head of macroeconomics at Yuanta Securities Funding Consulting in Taipei.

“There are nonetheless many potential uncertainties within the exterior atmosphere, akin to the opportunity of vitality issues in Europe,” he mentioned.

The statistics company now sees 2022 exports up 13.51 per cent on final 12 months, in contrast with 14.62 per cent predicted earlier.

Giving its first estimate for subsequent 12 months, it mentioned it noticed 2023 GDP increasing 3.05 per cent, whereas exports would inch up solely 2.64 per cent.

The directorate mentioned financial coverage tightening and inflation pushed by the battle in Ukraine had been affecting customers, at the same time as demand for semiconductors, the primary plank of Taiwan’s economic system, remained sturdy.

It additionally pointed to China’s lockdown measures to manage the unfold of COVID-19 as a crimp on financial exercise.

Taiwan’s exports are a bellwether of demand for international tech giants akin to Apple Inc, because the island is a serious producer of semiconductors, a world scarcity of which has rattled corporations like auto makers and boosted Taiwanese company income.

The workplace additionally revised up its 2022 inflation outlook. It sees 2022 shopper costs 2.92 per cent increased than final 12 months, in contrast with a beforehand forecast rise of two.67 per cent, although it added that 2023 would present a rise of simply 1.72 per cent.

Within the second quarter, GDP was up by a revised 3.05 per cent on a 12 months earlier, rising barely extra slowly than indicated in a preliminary studying of three.08 per cent, the company mentioned.

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